Commentary
In September, a group of journalists (including me) were hosted by Taiwanese national security experts to discuss the developing crisis of Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. The portion of the week-long visit at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the Taiwanese Defense and Security Think Tank akin to MITRE, Rand, or The Aerospace Corporation, contained an urgent and compelling message.
“We will be quarantined within six months and the first step of the operation will be China cutting our undersea cables to interrupt our communications with the world” was what Senior research fellows at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, Drs. Tzu-Yun Su, Shan-son Kung, and Charles C.J. Wang, shared. Their observations were prescient because that has now happened.
China goes after one of the main undersea cables connecting Taiwan with the world
In a replay of Baltic Sea undersea infrastructure attacks by Chinese ships in October of 2023 and November 2024, a Chinese-associated ship has now destroyed a major undersea cable off Taiwan. On Friday, January 3, at about 1240 hours local time, Chungwha Telecom noticed an outage from its Trans-Pacific Express (TPE) Cable, which it owns and operates with AT&T, China Telecom, China Unicom, Chunghwa Telecom, KT, NTT, and Verizon. The location was just outside the 12-mile limit of territorial waters of Taiwan, north of the major Taiwan Port of Keelung at the northern end of the island nation of Taiwan. The water depth in this area is likely less than 500 feet. Chungwha Telecom notified Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA), which sent a patrol boat to intercept the Hong Kong-owned, Cameroon-registered freighter “Shunxing39” (IMO 8358427).
The CGA attempted to board the ship but rough weather prevented boarding operations. The vessels Automatic Identification System (AIS) is apparently turned off now and has been since the event and the Shunxing39 may be heading for Busan, South Korea. South Korea itself is in a state of civil unrest with the struggle between the Chinese-leaning Democrat Party and the Conservative Populist People Power Party. In an interview with Voice of America, Ray Powell, director of Stanford University’s Sealight project, said that the Chinese vessel has been operating between Keelung and Busan South Korea, “under two different names, two different flags, and six different identification numbers over the last six months.” Ray added, “Having at least six different registration numbers indicates this ship is devoted to being off-grid or hard to track…it’s hidden behind a private company based out of Hong Kong with an owner in China and flags of African countries, which keep the Chinese government from the vessel’s activities,”
Next step: A Cuban Missile Crisis like “Quarantine” of Taiwan by China
From the September visit to Taiwan, the three members from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research shared concern that Taiwan had a six-month window of a possible “quarantine operation to cut off Taiwan from the outside world.” They predicted that China would attempt a replay of a “Cuban Missile Crisis” tactic of creating a naval barrier which could stop and inspect ships. They warned that the Chinese were aware that a “blockade” would be interpreted as an act of war, but that China may risk a “quarantine”. The different terms are legally significant. The United States did not “blockade” Cuba during the Missile Crisis, instead the United States invoked a “quarantine” to block certain ships suspected of carrying missiles, missile associated equipment, aircraft, or nuclear weapons.
The Chinese Navy is at a point where it is numerically and perhaps qualitatively superior to the closest U.S. Navy element, the 7th Fleet based in Yokosuka, Japan. When combined though with Japanese and South Korean Naval forces, there is a decisive advantage to a combined U.S., Japanese, and South Korean force. However, as noted, South Korea is coincidently going through a Constitutional crisis on leadership. No conspiracies, but no coincidences. If South Korea is off the table as far as being part of an alliance to deter or address a Chinese quarantine of Taiwan, that would be a significant advantage for China.
Trump’s intent to re-build the U.S. Navy to deter China from a Quarantine or Blockade
Events are happening fast, so January 20, 2025, can’t come soon enough to have President Trump sworn in. President Trump will have Dr. Navarro and team to beat down the Chinese Communist Party through finance and economics. But military deterrence capacity and capabilities are also needed with alacrity. Hugh Hewitt interviewed President Trump and asked him if he was a “Navalist” in the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt and Reagan knew the importance of having a dominant U.S. Navy to ensure the safety and security of U.S. trade and interests around the world.
Trump’s responses put him squarely in the tradition of being a “Navalist”. President Trump said, “We need ships. And we may have to go a different route than you would normally go…We haven’t, we don’t build ships anymore. We used to build a ship a day. We don’t build ships anymore. We want to get that started. And maybe we’ll use allies, also, in terms of building ships…China’s building, from what I’m hearing, every four days, they’re knocking out a ship. And we’re sitting back watching. And we’ve suffered tremendously. During the Biden administration, all he knew about was the Green New Deal building nonsense, giving money away, putting windmills all over the place…” Hugh Hewitt concluded with his assessment of President-elect Trump, “That’s a “navalist” talking and contrasting his approach with the absurdity of the “Green New Deal” which couldn’t even deliver charging stations at scale.”
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
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