Iran’s Plan for the 2024 US Election

September 3, 2024

Commentary

There are reportedly Iranian attempts to make sure former President Donald Trump does not return to office. There is reportedly both the high-end threat of direct assassination and malign influence activities through cyber and social media.

Walid Phares, a respected expert on Middle East matters, has said: “The Islamic regime in Iran is trying to assassinate former President Donald Trump, with hopes of doing so by Nov. 5, Election Day.”

“Multiple governmental sources associated with U.S. allies across the Mideast have informed me of the danger.”

Even before the July 13 Butler shooting that injured Trump (which is not known to be linked to Iran), there was concern that Iran was plotting to kill the former president.

In addition, Iranian cyber units appear focused on the Trump campaign.

FBI Investigates Iranian Cyber-Attacks Against Trump Campaign

In the 2024 presidential election, there is allegedly a real and malign foreign election interference operation led by Iran. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have released a joint statement squarely blaming Iran for seeking to use cyber methods to break into the Trump campaign.

The statement reads in part: “The Intelligence Community (IC) has previously reported that Iran perceives this year’s elections to be particularly consequential in terms of the impact they could have on its national security interests, increasing Tehran’s inclination to try to shape the outcome. We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns.”

The Iranian hacking operation reportedly has a face and identity. It is allegedly known as APT (advanced persistent threat) 42 or CharmingKitten. APT42 is thought to be embedded in and associated with the intelligence division of the Iranian military, the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran as a Proxy of China

There has been an evolution of the longstanding Iranian tension with the United States. Iran has become China’s premier worldwide proxy. China is the dominant provider of support to Iran, and Iran’s economy is beholden to energy exports to China.

Henry Rome of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has said: “The economic relationship is fundamentally asymmetrical, so I’d call it a one-way strategic partnership. … It’s certainly strategic for Iran: China is Iran’s most important economic partner and is the lung through which the [Iranian] economy breathes.”
The connection between Iran’s IRGC, military, and intelligence activities and China has become pervasive. Chinese defense ministers have traveled to Iran to establish deep and formal relations with Iran, with a possible focus on arms transfers; drone, dual-use, and missile technologies; and cyber and intelligence capabilities. Iran is now reportedly seeking advanced Chinese spy satellites to give Iranian intelligence and influence operations a broader, worldwide reach.

With Russia decisively focused on the Ukraine War and now attempting to respond to a sudden Ukraine thrust into the Kursk Oblast of Russia, Iran has become the senior “colony” to China. It is not unreasonable to conclude that because of the defense and intelligence agreements between Iran and China, Iran’s objective of ensuring Trump does not return to office has at least the tacit approval of China if not some involvement in the planning and direction of the Iranian election interference operations.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.

This article first appeared in Epoch Times and was reprinted with permission.

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